Emergency and disaster through the eyes of a non-mathematician
Keywords:emergency, catastrophe, stages; definition, development mechanism
Background. It is our personal desire and interest to study this topic in more details with the help of competent sources, in connection with frequent natural and man-made emergencies that bring great material losses and human casualties. In accordance with this goal, the following tasks have been defined: to consider the semantic meaning of the known formulations of emergency situations and stages of their development; on the basis of the analysis, to formulate a generalized concept of an emergency; to determine the mechanism for the development of an emergency and catastrophe (catastrophic process); to draw conclusions about the role of an emergency in the development of disasters. Results. There is no universally accepted definition of an emergency. The paper presents a generalized formulation of an emergency situation, close to the most common formulations used in the Western countries. The proposed model of the catastrophe development mechanism made it possible to formulate its definition. An emergency situation and disasters are interconnected, and in this interconnection the leading role is assigned to an emergency situation, which defines a disaster as a function of its potential stage. The latter always exists; therefore, the occurrence of disasters is the norm for our natural and man-made environment. It is proposed to bring the wording of an emergency in accordance with its definition, to introduce into the general characteristics of emergency situations the stages of its development, which take place in all classification options. The expediency of such a proposal is explained by the wide information content of our concept of “emergency stage”, which implies the objectivity of the development of the process and the implementation of various organizational measures. The presented mechanism for the development of disasters is applicable for all types of disasters: biological, social, natural, man-made and environmental, and is universal. To prevent or stop any catastrophe development, it is enough to influence any of its three components.
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