Phased Model for Predicting Outcomes of Severe Traumatic Brain Injury

L.A. Dziak, O.O. Zozulia


To optimize the prediction of the severity of the course and outcomes of severe traumatic brain injury (STBI), there were examined 280 male patients aged 20 to 60 years with baseline impairment of consciousness not more than 8 points on the Glasgow coma scale. We have evaluated 208 clinical and laboratory-biochemical characteristics. Statistically significant parameters that act as biochemical markers of STBI outcome have been identified: progesterone and serotonin — on day 1 after STBI, methemoglobin — on day 3, oxyhemoglobin — on day 5, base-excess, lactate, histamine and serotonin — on day 7, oxy- and methemoglobin — on day 10, lactate, DOPA — on day 14. Prediction of STBI outcomes was performed ­using mathematical modeling on days 1, 3, 5, 7 and 14 after the injury. The prediction model included age, the severity of the structural and functional brain damage and the most prognostically significant biochemical markers. The model has the form of a linear discriminant function (LDF), which was calculated separately for each group of patients (survivors — LDF1 and dead — LDF2). The model was highly significant in all stages of observation.


severe traumatic brain injury; prediction markers; outcome


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